The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, has largely failed to reach its declared objective: the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level which would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."  It took a short-term view of a long-term objective and as a result lost clarity, credibility and support along the way. The key now is to move beyond it.

The Kyoto Protocol has two major flaws. First, it leaves out the developing countries, which soon will emit more than half of the world's GHGs.  Second, the Kyoto Protocol takes the long-term objective of stabilization of GHG concentrations and transforms it into a short-term target on emissions reductions, with no clear link between the two.

"Dangerous anthropogenic interference" will most likely kick in when carbon concentrations in the atmosphere are at 450 to 550 parts per million (ppm). The world's current trajectory of energy use, deforestation and industrial growth could easily take us to twice that range by the end of the century. The consequences could be catastrophic: melting of ice sheets, with a huge rise of ocean levels; massive crop failures; increased transmission of diseases; and potentially calamitous effects on ecosystem services.

The Stern Review makes clear that the costs of emissions control will be far lower than the costs of inaction.  Smart technologies can probably keep the long-term annual costs of GHG stabilization at below 1 percent of global GDP.  It is time, therefore, to aim for a sensible long-term framework in which all countries will participate.

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